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Recession watch

Background to the

project

Practical aspects
Risk managers
Risk tactics
Regulation
 
Academic aspects
Financial risk
Economics and history of recession

 

 

Recession watch

Economics and history of recession

'Power curves': What natural and economic disasters have in common

The parallels between financial crises and natural disasters — such as earthquakes or forest fires — suggest that the economy, just like complex natural systems, is inherently unstable and prone to occasional huge failures that are very hard or impossible to foresee. Scientists and other proponents of this school of thinking are bringing new ideas grounded in complexity theory to economic forecasting, strategic planning, and risk management. This trend may have profound implications for policy makers, economists, and corporate strategists alike.  The key messages are to:

  • Make the system the unit of analysis
  • Don’t assume stability and do take a long look back
  • Focus on early warning
  • Build flexible business models
  • Learn from scientists studying other complex system

http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Strategy/Globalization/Power_curves_What_natural_and_economic_disasters_have_in_common_2376

 

VOX

The website for economists in various institutions to debate what they think about the crisis and where it is going.  Crammed full of short concisely argued academic articles on what is going on.  So good the UK Government used it to collect the views of economists from around the world on what we should do to fix the global economy in preparation for the G20 summit.

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/2824  

 

First thoughts on impact

This superb paper from Claudio Borio of the Bank of International Settlements discussed why the recession happened and what the implications are. Extremely good reading for an early view of what economists are saying.

http://www.bis.org/publ/work251.htm

 

US housing

Why did the Housing Meltdown start in the USA and why did it have such an impact – these papers from the Bank International Settlements are really illuminating and give the best background we have seen to the reasons for the Banks to fail.

http://www.bis.org/publ/work259.htm

 

A timeline

Clive Thompson, a member, offers an analysis of 2007 and 2008 events in terms of the news, government actions and insolvencies / closures here.

 

Risk and the financial crisis

The first paper in the IRM Focus - Papers on Risk series contains four essays from the Institute's members on the causes of the current financial crisis and lessons for the future.

http://www.theirm.org/publications/documents/IRMRiskandtheFinancialCrisisSummer2009.pdf

 

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